In early 2021, IECS won a grant from the World Health Organization's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) to evaluate the impact of different vaccination strategies and their interaction with the rigor of social and health measures. public health (MSSP) for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.
In this phase of development of the model, which had the support of the IDB, we extended the analysis of the epidemiological and health impact of vaccination to 27 countries in the region. In a second stage, we incorporate an economic evaluation, as a new layer of the epidemiological model, comparing different vaccination strategies with non-vaccination, maintaining the MSSSP at intermediate levels of rigor in their application. This cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out in some selected countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico.
The project, which develops a dynamic transmission model “SVEIR” – (S) susceptible, (V) vaccinated, (E) exposed, (I) infected and (R) recovered, includes the compilation of key indicators of preparedness of the health system. health in terms of resources to confront the epidemic, taking into account the critical parameters of the health system at the national or subnational level, such as the number of general beds in hospitals and intensive care units (ICU), respirators, health in hospitals and ICU, occupancy rate, length of hospital stay, etc. It also includes how different public health policies (vaccination and MSSP) impact the dynamics of viral transmission, the trajectory of the epidemic in cases, measured in ICU admissions and deaths, as well as the use of critical resources in the countries. .
As a result of this health system preparation model, estimates are obtained of the expected daily number of COVID-19 cases and deaths for a given scenario and its relationship with other epidemiological variables, and above all, with the resources available to respond from health systems and services. The model does not attempt to predict exactly what will happen in reality, but rather provides the possibility of comparing different possible scenarios and estimating in advance the impact of public policies that may be implemented.
Based on epidemiological data on the trajectory of the epidemic, the model allows the estimation of the costs associated with each scenario, and the comparison of counterfactual scenarios to measure cost-effectiveness.
This model presents the possibility of interaction with the user as one of its clearest advantages. That is, the user can define new scenarios by replacing the model parameters interactively with personalized estimates adapted to the local context and scenario, which better reflect the situation of the countries or of a particular jurisdiction, in different time periods.
It aspires to be a very useful tool for health decision-makers and their work teams since it allows them to analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission and therefore define intervention strategies to provide an adequate response to the population.
Webinar of Presentation of the Model and Demonstration
Team
- Prof. Dr. Adolfo Rubinstein (PI)
- Prof. Dr. Andrés Pichon‐Riviere (Co-PI)
- Prof. Dr. Federico Augustovski
- Dr. Analía López
- Dr. Alejandro López Osornio
- Lic. Maisa Havela
- Lic. Cintia Cejas
- Lic. Adrián Santoro (Modeling, programming and visual interface)
- Lic. Analia Cápula (Modeling, programming and visual interface)
- Dr. Ariel Bardach (Search for epidemiological and clinical information)
- Dr. Alejandro Blumenfeld (Search for epidemiological and clinical information)
- Dr. Jamile Ballivian (Search for epidemiological and clinical information)
- Mr. Alfredo Palacios (Economic evaluation)
- Dr. Federico Cairoli (Economic evaluation)
- Dr. Fernando Argento (Economic evaluation)
- Dr. Germán Solioz (Economic evaluation)
External Advisory Council
- Michael Reich, Taro Takemi International Health Policy Program at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health in Boston.
- Fernando Pio De La Hoz Restrepo, Applied Epidemiology Program of the National Institute of Health, Colombia.
- Jeremy Veillard Senior Health Specialist in Latin America and the Caribbean for Health, Nutrition and Population at the World Bank.
- Patricia Garcia, Cayetano Heredia Peruvian University of Peru
- Cristina Guimaraes, Institute of Economics Foundation of the University of Sao Paulo.
- Alvaro Gutierrez, Public Health Consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank of Bolivia.
- Marisa Santos, Health Technology Assessment Center of the National Institute of Cardiology of Brazil.
- Felicia Knaul, Institute for Advanced Studies of the Americas at the University of Miami.
- Alarico Rodríguez, Social Cabinet Coordinator in the Government of Canelones, Uruguay